Thoughts and prayers for Yuki Tsunoda's Formula 1 career.

      RUDY CAREZZEVOLI

      It seems my Formula 1 instincts are faulty because, despite the numerous rumors surrounding Red Bull Racing hinting at a particular outcome since late last year, my intuition led me to believe that none would materialize. I'm referring to the dismissal of Sergio Perez, which I did not anticipate. Even with his poor performance throughout 2024, I was sure that Red Bull would retain the seasoned driver for the final year under the existing regulations, planning to reassess for 2026 if he didn’t improve. I was mistaken. Then, I was certain that Yuki Tsunoda would directly replace Perez. Wrong again. I also thought Red Bull wouldn’t discard Liam Lawson after just two races. Yet again, I was mistaken. Now, I'm left hoping to be incorrect about Tsunoda taking on a risky role, which, as we’ve come to realize, often ends in disappointment and shattered aspirations.

      Less than 24 hours following last weekend's Chinese Grand Prix, reports emerged suggesting that Red Bull was seriously contemplating replacing Lawson with Tsunoda. By Tuesday, sources like ESPN confirmed the potential switch, although these reports lacked official verification. On Wednesday, I reached out to a few well-informed contacts, all of whom indicated that the agreement was nearly complete, but that discussions involving Red Bull, Tsunoda's management, and major sponsor Honda were still fraught. In other words, while it seemed likely, it could all still fall through at any moment.

      Come Thursday morning, it's official—Tsunoda is set to step into a position where many have faltered. I have a fondness for Yuki; I've had several conversations with him, both on and off the record, and he’s fantastic. But Lawson is also impressive. Is Tsunoda more talented than Perez? I don’t think so. Despite his decline last year, Perez achieved numerous feats with the car that others could not. Additionally, he consistently fulfilled his role in assisting Max Verstappen in clinching championships. Let’s not overlook his well-known nicknames like “Mexican Minister of Defense” and “The Tire Whisperer.”

      Does anyone genuinely believe that Tsunoda will stroll into the Red Bull garage, jump into the RB21, and quickly manage to lap just tenths behind Verstappen? Because as it stands, that’s the expectation. Red Bull requires a driver who can consistently finish just behind Verstappen in every race for crucial championship points. Furthermore, Tsunoda will face significant media scrutiny, especially since he’ll be trying to perform at his home race with Honda HRC seeking a return on its estimated $30 million investment.

      Earlier this week, our F1 contributor Olivia Hicks pointed out that Red Bull has constructed a team to cater primarily to Verstappen, often overlooking the needs and desires of the second driver. She explains how Lawson's struggles are indicative of Red Bull’s broader issues rather than the root cause. The team managed to operate under this mindset for years largely because Perez consistently did enough to warrant his position, especially as Verstappen won nearly every race and accumulated record points. However, that may not hold true in 2025.

      After receiving an undisclosed payoff, Perez is enjoying life, recently purchasing a $10 million vacation condo in Miami and flying privately with his family around Europe, the United States, and Mexico. Meanwhile, Lawson, who lived a dream off-season as a Red Bull driver followed by two disheartening races, is being labeled as damaged goods. Tsunoda may be the latest sensation, but will he maintain that status in a couple of races? Most likely not. Yet, I must reiterate, my F1 instincts seem off.