Which team or driver is likely to win the Canadian Grand Prix in 2025?
The Canadian Grand Prix stands as one of the premier events in the Formula 1 calendar. Although the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve event is still months away, discussions regarding potential champions are already underway.
Max Verstappen continues to assert his dominance in Canada, having secured his third consecutive Canadian Grand Prix victory in 2024, adding to his total of nine wins this season. Red Bull has triumphed in five of the last ten races held at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. While 2025 is anticipated to bring heightened competition, Verstappen is likely to remain a leading contender when betting odds are made available.
Last time, Verstappen was seen as the favorite to triumph in the Great White North. Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc emerged as his nearest rivals. Norris could pose the biggest threat to Verstappen's reign in Canada once again, finishing 3.87 seconds behind his Red Bull rival at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve last year. He also ended the 2024 Driver Standings in second place overall.
Norris’ McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri, may also be a contender. He achieved a fifth place finish in Canada last year and secured two overall race victories. The 23-year-old is coming off a breakout season and could make this year memorable by winning at one of F1’s most iconic circuits.
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is renowned for hosting first-time winners, with drivers like Lewis Hamilton, Jean Alesi, and Robert Kubica claiming their inaugural victories at this historic track. There’s a possibility that Liam Lawson might join that esteemed group.
The young Kiwi has been promoted to the senior team this year after his Racing Bulls bosses determined he was ready for the premier category. He will team up with Verstappen at Red Bull this season, although expectations will be moderate, given that this is his inaugural season in a top-tier role.
It is premature for bookmakers to set odds for the race since the season has only just begun, and Canadian sportsbooks will likely refrain from releasing any odds for several months. Nonetheless, the low-pressure environment could allow Lawson to shine, and with some race experience, the Canadian Grand Prix might serve as an ideal opportunity for him to achieve his first points finish.
Hamilton has found renewed purpose at Ferrari, and his collaboration with Leclerc likely forms the strongest driver duo in F1. The former Mercedes star holds the record for the most wins at the Canadian GP, with seven victories, and he is the last driver other than Verstappen to win at this event, crossing the finish line first in 2019.
Leclerc, on the other hand, is eager to avoid a repeat of his disastrous outing at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve last year. He entered as one of the favorites after winning in Monaco, but was unable to complete the race due to engine issues. However, driving alongside Hamilton could motivate him to secure his first Canadian GP title. He finished third when Hamilton last won the race, but that was five years ago.
Following Verstappen and Norris, George Russell came in third at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in 2024. This year, he will take on the role of Mercedes’s lead driver, exuding confidence after surpassing Hamilton in wins last season. He could very well be eyeing his first victory at the Canadian GP this year.
Fernando Alonso finished sixth at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve last season and will lead the Aston Martin team, which could emerge as a dark horse for the championship. His 2024 season was less impressive compared to his 2023 performance, where he stood on the podium in six out of the first eight races. He also finished second in the 2023 Canadian GP, just behind Verstappen. Although Alonso may not be a major contender, he could be an intriguing dark horse this year as Aston Martin aims for a resurgence.
Sergio Perez was regarded as an underdog to watch last year; however, he will not be competing this time around as Red Bull opted to drop him in favor of promoting Lawson. Despite a poor 2024 season, Perez remains a talented F1 driver. Currently without a team, he is not a candidate for predictions regarding the 2025 Canadian GP, but he may seek another chance at the championship in 2026.
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