Subaru sales continue to fall short, yet the figures don't capture the complete picture.

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      Subaru appears to be regaining its momentum. Following a lackluster 2025 (particularly for car enthusiasts), the smaller Japanese manufacturer has been facing challenges in reviving its sales in 2026, attributing its slow start to adverse weather and ongoing inventory shortages. Fortunately, it seems that the tide is finally turning for Subaru.

      If you haven’t been keeping up, the last 18 months have not been especially favorable for Subaru. The automaker was about to launch the redesigned Outback when Donald Trump was elected last November and had recently updated the Forester. With impending tariff increases, Subaru relocated Forester production to Indiana, where the slimmer margins of the compact SUV could be better preserved. The more profitable midsize Outback was sent to Japan, where it could better absorb tariff impacts. This is also why the entry-level Outback was discontinued; Subaru can no longer afford to sell it at such a low price. Additionally, farewell to the Legacy.

      This significant product reorganization contributed to the WRX's disappointing performance in 2025. Subaru not only removed the base model but also produced significantly fewer of its compact sport sedans compared to previous years. These combined factors led to a dramatic drop in sales last year. However, four months into 2026 (with assistance from the reintroduced base model), sales are beginning to recover. Let’s review the sales trend from 2024 to 2025:

      Subaru's U.S. sales chart for April 2025 (top) and April 2026 (bottom)

      The 2026 sales chart is slightly longer than that of 2025 since Subaru introduced two new EVs this year, the Trailseeker and Uncharted, but its relatively small lineup makes it easy to understand. Although WRX's year-to-date sales have still decreased, even against its already weak 2025 figures, April seems to mark a turning point. Last year, sales plummeted nearly 60% in April; this year, they have increased by more than 50%. While it's not a full recovery, the trajectory looks promising.

      Now, let's examine Outback sales. The 2025 chart indicates the first signs of Subaru reducing production of the old Outback. Sales were up 6.4% year-to-date at this time last year, but April sales had sunk over 12%. Deliveries are still down about 28% compared to 2024, yet the trend is already improving significantly. Subaru averaged roughly 9,000 Outback sales monthly in the first quarter; reaching an average of 10,500 per month could lead to an additional ~12,000 units by year-end. To match the same Outback volume that Subaru achieved in 2024, the average must exceed 16,400 per month for the remaining months of the year. While this is unlikely, it's not out of reach.

      It's also important to note that, at its current pace, the Forester is on track to surpass its 2025 and 2024 sales figures.

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